Time to Pick-up Semiconductor Counters

My previous posts indicate a positive picture for the Semicon sector.
Semiconductor Sustainable Recovery Likely
Semiconductor Recovery Part 2
Semiconductor Recovery?
Semiconductor Industry Recovering



Is it time to start picking up stocks?



The main indicator is the Philadelphia Semi Index, here indications are that we might be reaching the bottom.





The main ETF for the sector is SMH, similar signals here.


For more about SMH, please refer to my earlier blog entitled Semiconductors getting hot?




ETF buyers, please be aware that semiconductor sector is highly volatile and not recommended as a long term value investment.

The annual CAGR going forward is 3-4%, a far cry from the 15%-17% that we use to see in the earlier years.

However, there are some bright sparks e.g. LED space. CREE for example reported a 225% y-on-Y growth earlier this week.

SGX : Stock Watch Next Week - NOL, CapitaMall & Jardine C&C

In view of the dip that I anticipate next week, I would be looking at the following few counters


NOL, I am looking for a reversal sometime next week.



CapitaMall looks like headed for a rebound.

Watch the MACD for a turning.





Jardine C&C,


The most expensive stock of the lot.

Stochastic and RSI are right

Strong volumes

Watch for MACD turning

US Stocks : Dollar vs Dow Jones

I took a longer term look at my previous post two days ago of the intra day US Dollar vs S&P500.

Using the US Dollar future DXY vs the Dow Jones Industrial, the 6 months view indicates that just buying the index i.e. ETF, there is still a nett gain of 10%.

Semiconductor Sustainable Recovery Likely

I got this out of a briefing by Gartner to the ECCT in Taiwan on 2nd Oct '09.

They seem cautiously optimistic that the semiconductor will recover in 2010 and that the recovery is driven very much by PCs and cell phones.

Plenty of good details and analysis and worth a read.

The report can be downloaded from

http://www.ecct.com.tw/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_details&Itemid=96&gid=443

US Stocks : Not Time to get into US Markets yet

Just when I thought the market will sustain the uptrend, the Dow close last night across the board.

Bank closure continue with Seven banks closed yesterday.

One wonders also whether we get any back with the US dollar inverse mirror of the S&P500.

Chart from http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/

Not the time to get into the US market for me.

Semiconductor Recovery Part 2

For those who would like to get the forecast and not wait for the untilization results in Nov, this might interest you.


Industry capacity utilization is forecast by IC Insights to increase another 10 points to 88% in 3Q09—essentially the same level as a year earlier prior to the economic collapse.









Source : http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/bulletins2009/bulletin20090908.html

Technical Analysis Part 1 -Candlesticks

I got some questions on what all the charts which I had in blog is all about. As such, I will add a few blogs to explain over the next couple of days.



Starting from the very top, the top chart indicates the price of the stock. This consists of multiple candlesticks.







A candlestick chart is a style of Bar-chart used primarily to describe price movements of a stock, currency or commodity over time.

It is a combination of a line-chart and a bar-chart, in that each bar represents the range of price movement over a given time interval.



The candlestick can be black/red -in which case it open high and closed lower or white/blue in which case it opened at a lower price and closed higher.



The candlestick consists of a body and the wick (shadow)



The body indicates the opening and closing price of the stock.



The wick or shadows illustrates the highest and lowest traded prices of a security during the time interval represented.







Candlestick charts are normally accompanied by the volume charts.



For more on candlestick charts, the below link is a good source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candlestick_chart

Semiconductor Recovery?

My post yesterday, generated some questions on whether the signs of recovery are real.


I thought I share another angle, by looking at Fab utilization.


Q2 figures from Semiconductor Industry Association was positive, we have to wait till next month to find out what Q3 figures will be.


For those interested to follow, the data is available from the below link:
http://www.sia-online.org/cs/papers_publications/statistics

Semiconductor Industry Recovering

Business is looking up for fab tool makers.

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted a book-to-bill ratio of 1.17 in September, up from 1.06 in August, according to SEMI.

"September 2009 is also the first time since May 2007 that year-over-year bookings have risen and is in-line with the gradually improving capital spending outlook for the remainder of this year and into next year."

http://www.semi.org/en/Press/CTR_032564

Japanese book-to-bill also look positive at 1.28. Please refer to the below URL:
http://www.seaj.or.jp/english/statistics/index.html

Technical Analysis 101

I got the question on where to begin learning technical analysis.

I found the below site a good starter.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/

Career Decisions

I had some friends asking what career to pursue or switch to in view of the current economic downturn. I found the MOM site

http://app.careercompass.gov.sg/Front/Home.aspx

to be useful to narrow down the options for the Singapore context.

It covers for each sector :

Sector Overview
Medium Term Sector Outlook
Information on Employers in the Sector
Pipeline of New Investments and Jobs
Occupational Listings
Other Information

and for each occupation

Occupation Vitals
Nature of the Work
Working Conditions
Qualifications, Training and Advancement
Personal Characteristics & Core
Job Outlook
Earnings

WBG Triumph - US Stocks

I just got a note from Investopedia that today is Black Monday. Back in 1987, this marked the worst one day drop in the DJIA, a whopping 22% in one day.

Let's hope things do not change dramatically for these.

Johnson & Johnson after disappointing results, let's see how things go for them.



Caterpillar announces results tomorrow night.





General Electric had a disappointing 3rd Qtr dragged down by GE Capitals commercial property division.

More at:
http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2009/10/16/ge_3rd-quarter_earnings_drop_on_finance_woes

WBG Triumph - Worth a Look

ARA Assets, City DEv & Straits Asia to be watched.


MACD crossing 0 with blue above

Straits Asia below the MA in view of the recent flood damage to factory.

WBG Triumph -Overbought Counters

Test your Biz Plan and win $20K start up funds!

This could be a place to test out your ideas, learn how to write a biz plan and win some start-up funds.

The site also gives some briefs about previous winners.

I entered this back in 1999 but have not picked it up again after that. Probably a good idea to give it a second shot.

Find out more at :
http://www.startup.org.sg/

Franchising & Licensing Asia 2009

I am not sure how many folks made it there. I found it to be a rather educational visit, quite some networking opportunities too.

Key takeaway for myself:
1. Good franchises are going to require more capital and not for me at this time. Looking at >150K.
2. The market in Singapore is mainly linked to Food & Education, need to do more homework on this.
3. You can pick up a lot of tips from the free talks that run in parallel.

This is probably something I would revisit next year when I gather enough cap.

Help in economic crisis

For those who need some help, there is a free full day workshop this coming Saturday 17th Oct 2009.

Official opening by SM Goh Chok Tong

Date : Saturday 17th Oct 2009
Time : 10:00am to 5:30pm
Venue : Paya Lebar Methodist Church

Items covered :
Career coaching, Job Interview Skills, Resume Clinic, Financial Clinic, Employers Corner etc
Also sharing of experiences by Jacelyn Tay & Nanz Chong

Further details at:
http://www.trac-mcs.org.sg/hope

For Budding Technopreneurs

Exploit Technologies is running an Innovation & Enterprise Week next Tuesday to Thursday.

Budding technolpreneurs might want to check it out.

It covers :
Day 1 : Technology Marketplace
Day 2 : Entrepreneurship Ecosystem
Day 3 : Industry Engagement

Further details at the below link:
http://www.iew2009.com/

Events to get ideas

A friend of my told me about a franchising and licensing event that is happening now in town. Potential place to pick up some ideas.

Franchising & Licensing Asia 2009
http://www.franchiselicenseasia.com/general-information.html

For those into Internet, there is also an event called Asia Internet Congress 2009. I am a newbie to this area so I have no idea how worthwhile it is to pay to attend.
http://www.asiainternetcongress.com/

Semiconductors getting hot?

Here's a quick snapshot of SMH, a semicon ETF of Yahoo:




FUND OVERVIEW
Category:Specialty-Technology
Fund Family:Merrill Lynch Pierce Fenner & Smith
Index Tracked:S&P 500 TR
Net Assets:908.47M
Fund Inception Date:4-May-00
Legal Type:Exchange Traded Fund




FUNDAMENTALS
Nett income for 2008 : -27.6M
Nett income for 2007 : -7.8M
Nett income for 2006 : 7.5M
Nett income for 2005 : 5M


The payouts might be more interesting






This might interest some of you:


http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3545877



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Still on the uptrend. Standard 6 not aligned.

Singapore Stocks Helpers

I found some interesting links that might be helpful:

For reports from the various brokerages:
http://www.remisiers.org/

For screening stocks:
http://macdscan.blogspot.com/
http://rsiscan.blogspot.com/
http://adxscan.blogspot.com/

Happy trading

Raffles Medical

Mum took first priority. Fundamentals look OK but looks overbought.