Happy New Year

Having been off for a better part of two weeks, I missed quite a bit of action on the market.

It was an interesting break to see Cambodia and to be without internet and other amenities.

Will get back to posting the next few days and start planning for 2010.

Have a Blessed New Year

Tech Pioneers 2010

For the techies, an interesting list which was released by WEF.

Tech Pioneers 2010

US : Indicators to look at this week

Some indicators coming up this Friday will be interesting to look at:

Retails Sales -
 - key as it accounts for 1/3 of US GDP
 - With the year to year figures gradually recovering, it would indicate whether recovery is sustained

Inventory to Sales
- Looking to see this returning to normal levels

Consumer Sentiment

- After last months dip, I would be looking to see it turn up again with the better job data last week

Careers : SMU Business Advisors Programme

The Business Advisors Programme (BAP) aims to match highly qualified PMETs (Professionals, Managers, Executives and Technicians) (known as "Business Advisors" under the BAP) to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) with the objective of growing the SMEs' business and services and to help PMETs better contextualize their expertise while working with the SMEs. The selection and matching process will be handled by UOB-SMU Entrepreneurship Alliance Centre*.The selected PMETs will attend a 2-day BAP Orientation by SMU plus a 2-day Basic Consulting Skills by IMC and will be attached to the sponsoring SMEs to work on specific projects/assignments.


http://www.smu.edu.sg/centres/usea/business_advisors_programme.asp

7 Ways To Position Yourself For Recovery

I thought this might interest some folks.

http://investopedia.com/slide-show/position-recovery/?partner=basics11

SGX : I will be watching the banks next week

With the big sell down in Europe and the Asian bourses today due to the Dubai financial situation, I will be looking at the Banks in Singapore correcting in the coming week.

Trying to Make Sense of U.S. Employment Numbers

While the unemplyment numbers released at the beginning of Nov indeed reflect the figures to be 10.2%.

The initial weekly figures released two days ago indicate the. number of additional unemployed has slowed significantly.

Semiconductor Book-to-Bill : 4th Month above 1

For the 4th month running Book-to-Bill is above 1.

October coming in at 1.1

25 Years of Tech Blunders - Slideshows - CNBC.com

I like this slideshow for a good lesson learnt session.

25 Years of Tech Blunders - Slideshows - CNBC.com

U.S. Real Unemployment at 17%?

Just to share a video that I found interesting from:

CNN Money

Real unemployment really bad

Real GDP Growth (YoY)

Linked to the previous posts, I got a comment on what about China since it is not on the list. The below map shows the Real GDP Growth YoY. (The deeper the green, the higher)

 

Info from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/World-Economy/Maps.aspx

Key Economic Data of Bigger Economies

I got interested in the comparison after the APEC meet and trying to correlate the stock markets in the world. Is the STI and Hang Seng Overheating?

Let's start with interest rates, especially after the call from China and Japan yesterday for U.S to raise interest rates

 













Which links to Real GDP Growth YOY.

From the data, it is understandable why Japan is concerned about the U.S interest rate keeping the Yen high against the dollar.

The economic figures link to the jobless data

Which continues to be a concern especially in the U.S., leading to depressed  Consumer Sentiment in the U.S. , the biggest consumer market and lower Inflation data in Europe.

The tight monetary policy in the U.S. also creates concern about deflationary effects.

Need to watch markets to see how these effects kick-in once the economic stimulus packages start to be removed this coming fiscal year.

What is clear, is for my Fixed Deposits, I am looking down under.

All charts from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/

1080p HD Is Coming to YouTube

Came across this that might interest some of the guys who read my blog.

"YouTube has announced that support for watching 1080p HD videos in full resolution “is on its way.
Starting next week, YouTube's HD mode will add support for viewing videos in 720p or 1080p, depending on the resolution of the original source"

http://hdtv.biz-news.com/news/en_US/2009/11/13/0009/1080p-hd-is-coming-to-youtube

Fertile Ground for Startups

I cmae across this article in Businessweek today.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_47/b4156046735817.htm

Happy reading.

PMI : Manufacturing Recovery on Track

The ISM(Institute of Supply Management) report released indicates positive trends for the manufacturing industry.

The PMI(Purchasing Managers Index) indicates 6 months of continous expansion, ( >41.2%)

Info from http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm

Nail-biting Black Friday Again

Despite stock market pushing high in various markets including Europe, this came yesterday.

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly dropped in November as the loss of jobs threatened to undermine the biggest part of the economy.

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index decreased to a three-month low of 66 from 70.6 in October.


This is worrying considering that consumer spending makes up 2/3 of the U.S. GDP.






and the Index has been at the lowest since 30 years.




Charts from University of Michigan.

Looks like another nail biting year at watching Black Friday sales results which falls on 27th November this year.

Recovery ? BDI Confirmation

To follow on from my previous post

Sector Rotation : Is US market on recovery?

which inidcates that we have hit the bottom in the US and on the mend, with Tech stock starting to fly.

I thought I check the Baltic Dry Indicator which is normally a leading indicator for the state of the world economy, since it measures the demand for shipping for raw materials.

The BDI seems to indicate that we are back to the level of June '09 when economies were re-stocking and our friends in supply chain were starting to expedite supplies.

Looks like we are making our way back to early 2007 levels.

Another confirmation that the economy is on the mend.

SGX : UE - Stock to Watch

UE is below the MA and testing the 1.65 support level.

One year has a high at 2.19.



Fundamentals are sound and could be an interesting buy if it dips further.

SGX: UOL - Earnings Tomorrow!

Market is waiting for results tomorrow. Watch this counter.

Fundamentals can be found in my previous post http://stock-triumph.blogspot.com/2009/11/sgx-property-stock-to-watch-uol.html

SGX : Parkwaylife Reit

The Reit has a buy rating from several analyst. It dropped below the 50D MACD today and I am looking to it testing the $1.10 support level, the RSI dipping below 30% and Stochastic dropping below 20% before coming in on this counter.

SGX : Starhub

After the loss of the EPL rights, Starhub has been down for quite a while. Now with the news of a series of new initatives, it seems to have found renewed vigor.

It has just crossed the 50D MACD and I am looking towards it testing the $2.10 resistance level.

Sector Rotation : Is US market on recovery?

To follow-on my previous post

US Stocks: Sector Watch
Based on the sector rotation model:




I tried to check the various DJ index over the pass 3 months.

Based on the model, we should see financial, utilities lagging the rest of the market and cyclicals, technology, industrials and basic industry start to pull ahead.

With this in mind, I pulled the various indexes for comparison:




It turns out that indeed:

• Utilities and Finanicals are lagging the pack and
• Basic materials, Technology and Industrial are ahead.
• Though, they are not exactly in the same order as the model.

Time to rotate money to the relevant sectors.

9 Green Careers With High Pay

The 9 careers according to the article are :

1. Environmental Engineer
2. Physicist
3. Environmental Scientist
4. Chemist
5. Sustainability Director
6. Agency Director
7. Energy Technology Program Specialist
8. Analyst/Financial Specialist
9. Economist

More details can be found at the below link:http://financialedge.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1109/9-Green-Careers-With-High-Pay-.aspx?partner=ntu11

For those in Singapore, perhaps the expo happening next week would be a good start to figure it out:






http://www.cleanenergyexpoasia.com/

Is the STI and Hang Seng Overheating?

The chart above shows the STI and Hang Seng outrunning the other markets in the recovery.
Both markets are up by 90% or more since March.
Are we going to see a major correction as in the Shanghai in August?

US Stocks: Sector Watch

Since the US market has cruised through earnings season and has held up, I thought it time to review the sectors before the Santa Claus rally begins.

Below is a quick summary from Market Watch

10 Best Performing Industries
Industry Name
Percent Change (over last 3 months)
DJ US Platinum & Precious Metals In...48.13%
DJ US Full Line Insurance Index26.16%
DJ US Forestry & Paper Index24.72%
DJ US Paper Index24.72%
DJ US Nonferrous Metals Index23.54%
DJ US Coal Index20.57%
DJ US Oil Equipment & Services Inde...19.17%
DJ US Durable Household Products In..19.05%
DJ US Mining Index18.61%
DJ US Oil Equipment, Services & Dis...18.30%

10 Worst Performing Industries
Industry Name
Percent Change (over time selected)
DJ US Tires Index-20.87%
DJ US Mortgage Finance Index-18.62%
DJ US Mobile Telecommunications Ind...-12.66%
DJ US Home Construction Index-11.12%
DJ US Home Improvement Retailers In...-10.22%
DJ U.S. Iron & Steel Index-9.99%
DJ US Heavy Construction Index-6.69%
DJ US Trucking Index-5.64%
DJ US Construction & Materials Inde...-5.39%
DJ US Asset Managers Index-5.11%

No surprise that the commodities are the sectors up and Housing market which started the downturn show the highest losses.

SGX : Property Stock to Watch - UOL

UOL has been going sideways for a while, trading between 3.2 and 3.7 since June

The current market dip might make it attractive to pick-up in anticipation of the 13th Nov Q3 earnings report.

1H 2009 results was 66% up.

Historical financial highlights are shown below for value investors.

2008 Semiconductor Ranking

To follow-on from my previous post
Time to Pick-up Semiconductor Counters

The above are the Top semiconductor firms ranked by revenue for those who would like to dig deeper into individual counters.

Time to Pick-up Semiconductor Counters

My previous posts indicate a positive picture for the Semicon sector.
Semiconductor Sustainable Recovery Likely
Semiconductor Recovery Part 2
Semiconductor Recovery?
Semiconductor Industry Recovering



Is it time to start picking up stocks?



The main indicator is the Philadelphia Semi Index, here indications are that we might be reaching the bottom.





The main ETF for the sector is SMH, similar signals here.


For more about SMH, please refer to my earlier blog entitled Semiconductors getting hot?




ETF buyers, please be aware that semiconductor sector is highly volatile and not recommended as a long term value investment.

The annual CAGR going forward is 3-4%, a far cry from the 15%-17% that we use to see in the earlier years.

However, there are some bright sparks e.g. LED space. CREE for example reported a 225% y-on-Y growth earlier this week.

SGX : Stock Watch Next Week - NOL, CapitaMall & Jardine C&C

In view of the dip that I anticipate next week, I would be looking at the following few counters


NOL, I am looking for a reversal sometime next week.



CapitaMall looks like headed for a rebound.

Watch the MACD for a turning.





Jardine C&C,


The most expensive stock of the lot.

Stochastic and RSI are right

Strong volumes

Watch for MACD turning

US Stocks : Dollar vs Dow Jones

I took a longer term look at my previous post two days ago of the intra day US Dollar vs S&P500.

Using the US Dollar future DXY vs the Dow Jones Industrial, the 6 months view indicates that just buying the index i.e. ETF, there is still a nett gain of 10%.

Semiconductor Sustainable Recovery Likely

I got this out of a briefing by Gartner to the ECCT in Taiwan on 2nd Oct '09.

They seem cautiously optimistic that the semiconductor will recover in 2010 and that the recovery is driven very much by PCs and cell phones.

Plenty of good details and analysis and worth a read.

The report can be downloaded from

http://www.ecct.com.tw/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_details&Itemid=96&gid=443

US Stocks : Not Time to get into US Markets yet

Just when I thought the market will sustain the uptrend, the Dow close last night across the board.

Bank closure continue with Seven banks closed yesterday.

One wonders also whether we get any back with the US dollar inverse mirror of the S&P500.

Chart from http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/

Not the time to get into the US market for me.

Semiconductor Recovery Part 2

For those who would like to get the forecast and not wait for the untilization results in Nov, this might interest you.


Industry capacity utilization is forecast by IC Insights to increase another 10 points to 88% in 3Q09—essentially the same level as a year earlier prior to the economic collapse.









Source : http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/bulletins2009/bulletin20090908.html

Technical Analysis Part 1 -Candlesticks

I got some questions on what all the charts which I had in blog is all about. As such, I will add a few blogs to explain over the next couple of days.



Starting from the very top, the top chart indicates the price of the stock. This consists of multiple candlesticks.







A candlestick chart is a style of Bar-chart used primarily to describe price movements of a stock, currency or commodity over time.

It is a combination of a line-chart and a bar-chart, in that each bar represents the range of price movement over a given time interval.



The candlestick can be black/red -in which case it open high and closed lower or white/blue in which case it opened at a lower price and closed higher.



The candlestick consists of a body and the wick (shadow)



The body indicates the opening and closing price of the stock.



The wick or shadows illustrates the highest and lowest traded prices of a security during the time interval represented.







Candlestick charts are normally accompanied by the volume charts.



For more on candlestick charts, the below link is a good source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candlestick_chart

Semiconductor Recovery?

My post yesterday, generated some questions on whether the signs of recovery are real.


I thought I share another angle, by looking at Fab utilization.


Q2 figures from Semiconductor Industry Association was positive, we have to wait till next month to find out what Q3 figures will be.


For those interested to follow, the data is available from the below link:
http://www.sia-online.org/cs/papers_publications/statistics

Semiconductor Industry Recovering

Business is looking up for fab tool makers.

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted a book-to-bill ratio of 1.17 in September, up from 1.06 in August, according to SEMI.

"September 2009 is also the first time since May 2007 that year-over-year bookings have risen and is in-line with the gradually improving capital spending outlook for the remainder of this year and into next year."

http://www.semi.org/en/Press/CTR_032564

Japanese book-to-bill also look positive at 1.28. Please refer to the below URL:
http://www.seaj.or.jp/english/statistics/index.html

Technical Analysis 101

I got the question on where to begin learning technical analysis.

I found the below site a good starter.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/

Career Decisions

I had some friends asking what career to pursue or switch to in view of the current economic downturn. I found the MOM site

http://app.careercompass.gov.sg/Front/Home.aspx

to be useful to narrow down the options for the Singapore context.

It covers for each sector :

Sector Overview
Medium Term Sector Outlook
Information on Employers in the Sector
Pipeline of New Investments and Jobs
Occupational Listings
Other Information

and for each occupation

Occupation Vitals
Nature of the Work
Working Conditions
Qualifications, Training and Advancement
Personal Characteristics & Core
Job Outlook
Earnings

WBG Triumph - US Stocks

I just got a note from Investopedia that today is Black Monday. Back in 1987, this marked the worst one day drop in the DJIA, a whopping 22% in one day.

Let's hope things do not change dramatically for these.

Johnson & Johnson after disappointing results, let's see how things go for them.



Caterpillar announces results tomorrow night.





General Electric had a disappointing 3rd Qtr dragged down by GE Capitals commercial property division.

More at:
http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2009/10/16/ge_3rd-quarter_earnings_drop_on_finance_woes

WBG Triumph - Worth a Look

ARA Assets, City DEv & Straits Asia to be watched.


MACD crossing 0 with blue above

Straits Asia below the MA in view of the recent flood damage to factory.